Attention Nerds: You're Gonna Enjoy This

Behold, the latest masterpiece from GMU's Russ Roberts and John Papola:



Fantastic.

Douglas County Woman Charged With Felony Child Abuse Of Boyfriend's Child:

Baby Karson

A twenty two year-old woman from Ava has been charged with felony child abuse for allegedly shaking her boyfriends 18 month-old son so violently that boy had to be hospitalized.

Douglas County authorities were called to Cox South hospital after a nurse hotlined a call to law enforcers about two other children in the home after little Karson was airlifted there on April 20th.

Prosecutors say Britni Leigh Tyra shook the little boy so violently that she caused "extensive bruising from behind both ears, extending to the eyes and cheeks."

Britni Leigh Tyra is charged with felony child abuse

Douglas County Deputy Vernon Johnson writes in the probable cause statement, that the left side of the boy's head looked "considerably" worse than the right side. Johnson also noted that the toddlers right eye was "swollen shut."  The bruising and swelling initially led me to believe (the boy) had been repeatedly beaten about the head and face."

A doctor who treated the boy "stated he had diagnosed (the boy's) injuries were from his scalp tearing away from his skull. I asked him how this could have happened and he stated it was consistent with someone grabbing (the boy) by the ears and shaking him," according to court documents.  The doctor "stated this was blood pooling from hemorrhaging along the tears."

When Tyra was interviewed on by authorities on April 20th she told investigators that she had no idea how the little boy ended up with the injuries.

She is being held in the Douglas County jail on $50,000 bond.  Prosecutors are asking that her bond be increased and are considering filing additional charges against Tyra.

A friend of baby Karson's mother says the little boy did not suffer any internal injuries and initial reports are that his eyesight was not affected.  She has started a Justice for Karson facebook page.

Trump & China, ctd.

This doesn't really change anything in my earlier post on Mr. Trump, his anti-China rhetoric or some conservatives' embrace thereof.  But still, dude:

Donald Trump has emerged in recent years as the nation's foremost China basher, going after the Asian superpower for undervaluing its currency and for taking American manufacturing and jobs. So it's at least ironic -- and at most an example of gross hypocrisy -- that Trump's own line of men's wear, the Donald J. Trump Signature Collection, is manufactured in China.

I discovered this after walking from Salon's offices to the large Macy's in midtown Manhattan, where an entire section is devoted to the Donald J. Trump Signature Collection of suits and ties. This particular corner of the store is decorated with an oversize portrait of Trump; the line promises to provide "the pinnacle of style and sophistication" and "the necessities to be boardroom ready all of the time."

Here is the tag on one of the Trump shirts:

Yes, that says "MADE IN CHINA." (That pink dress shirt retails, by the way, for $69.50.) Other pieces were made in Mexico and in Bangladesh....

The phone number listed on Trump's website for the Signature Collection goes to the "licensing coordinator" at the Trump Organization, Amy Steinfeldt. She did not immediately return a call. But it appears that the shirts and ties are made by the Phillips-Van Heusen Corp., which owns a license on the Trump brand....

A spokesman for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Sigh.

(h/t Mark Perry)

Sheriff Releases Picture Of Man Wanted For Questioning In Elderly Couple's Murders; Do You Know This Person?:

Do You Know This Person?  If so, call 417-868-4040 or 9-1-1

Greene County Sheriff Jim Arnott has released surveillance photo's of a man authorities want to talk to in connection to a double homicide earlier this week.

Arnott says the pictures of the man were taken between 5 and 7 a.m. on Monday April 25th at a nearby Kum N Go not far from where Donald and Helen Willingham were found murdered.  "It is an unidentified person we want to identify," Arnott said.

Do You Know This Person?  If so, call 417-868-4040 or 9-1-1

Seventy nine year-old Helen Willingham called 9-1-1 at 5:44 a.m. and told emergency dispatcher's that there was an intruder in her home at 2919 W. Swan assaulting her 79 year-old husband, Donald.  Helen dropped the phone but dispatcher's could hear a scuffle in the background until the call was disconnected.

Donald "Don" and Helen Willingham

When first responders arrived at the home 9 minutes later they found the couple dead on the floor. Both victims were stabbed multiple times in the chest area.

Two of the Willingham's son's and a niece and her husband made a public plea today for help in tracking down the person/s responsible for their loved ones brutal murders.  Don was a retired minister and the couple had been missionaries in Guam and Jamaica.

Willingham's family members asking for the public's help (courtesy Springfield News Leader)

At a news conference yesterday, Sheriff Arnott said this case is one of the worst he's seen in his twenty years with the sheriff's office.

Shortly after Helen Willingham's 9-1-1 call, emergency dispatcher's received another 9-1-1 call from a neighbor of the elderly couple who said they chased a clean shaven, thin white or Hispanic man with a dark complexion, wearing a hoodie south from the elderly couple's home into nearby woods.

Arnott acknowledged that the description was vague, "but that's all we have to go on."

Do You Know This Person?  If so, call 417-868-4040 or 9-1-1

Two men, one of whom ran from authorities yesterday after asking KSPR reporter Joanna Small what was going on in front of the crime scene were questioned and released.

“One subject had several warrants out for his arrest. There were some resemblances to the description that we have. He decided to run and deputies were able to catch him in the backyard,” Arnott said. “He has been interviewed and also his alibi checked out.”

Arnott believes the suspect, "may have defensive wounds on his body....there was a struggle."

The crime scene that investigators have been processing, "slow and methodical," checking every door and window," is expected to be released today.  Arnott says investigators may have DNA evidence that could be linked to the killer.  "The evidence will be sent to the Highway Patrol crime lab and a rush will be put on it."

Visitation for Doanld and Helen Willingham will be held from 2 to 4 p.m. at Ridgecrest Baptist Church in Springfield Funeral service for the couple will be held on Monday May 2nd at 10:30 a.m. at Ridgecrest Baptist Church.  Graveside services will be at 2 p.m. at the Missouri Veterans Cemetery.

Anyone who may know who the man in the photo's is or has any information that could assist in the apprehension of who killed the Willingham's is asked to call 417-868-4040 - 9-1-1 or Crimestoppers at 417-869-TIPS (8477). A reward is available for tips that lead to an arrest.

Newsflash: Nobody's Actually Getting Poorer

One of the more repeated bits of conventional wisdom out there is that, while the last few decades have been quite good for America's "rich," our poor and middle class have really struggled.  For example, here's President Obama trotting out the conventional wisdom in his recent middle finger to Paul Ryan speech on deficit reduction:

In the last decade, the average income of the bottom 90 percent of all working Americans actually declined. Meanwhile, the top 1 percent saw their income rise by an average of more than a quarter of a million dollars each. That's who needs to pay less taxes?

Leaving aside the speechwriter's apparently bad grammar (I think it's "fewer" taxes), an interesting new study (h/t Mark Perry) from the Employment Policies Institute calls President Obama's basic assertion that the "rich got richer, and the poor got poorer" into question.  Here's The Daily Caller with a good summary of the new study:

Research, published at The Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, from Cornell economist Richard Burkhauser, Joint Committee on Taxation economist Jeff Larrimore, and Indiana University economist Kosali Simon, however, suggests that the president’s piece of conventional wisdom isn’t entirely accurate. According to the findings, while the rich have indeed been getting richer, for the last 30 years so too have the poor and middle class.

Burkhauser told The Daily Caller that Obama’s suggestion that the poor are getting poorer understates the amount of income to which Americans actually have access. The president does not take into account, Burkhauser explained, tax unit shifts, government transfers, and other sources of income such as health care benefits.

“The bottom line is [conventional wisdom] asks what’s been happening to private personal income over time and they are right if you look at that for tax units, things do not look very good for the middle class,” he said. “But if you take other things into account, the reason the country has not gotten in a civil war is because things are not that bad. In fact everybody has done better.”

Burkhauser’s research shows what has actually been happening to the lives of Americans over the last thirty years — not just counting the amount of money individuals made in the market, but the actual income that people get in their hands to spend.

“This isn’t a zero sum game, where one group wins at the expense of others,” Burkhauser said. “The growth in productivity of Americans in the top twenty percent of tax units increased the size of the economic pie sufficiently to register major gains across the entire distribution of after-tax income.”

Burkhauser's findings add to a growing body of work which demonstrates that policymakers' (and rent-seekers') breathless concerns over American "income inequality" could be totally overblown, and thus that the redistributionist/statist policies that they justify based on said inequality should be met with serious skepticism.  One of the things not covered by Burkhauser but explained here frequently is the role that trade with China and other low-cost nations plays in further shrinking the great divide between rich and poor because the benefits of "cheap" imports are disproportionately enjoyed by lower income Americans. (In short, "rich" people don't shop at Wal-Mart or Target, so they don't get as much benefit from free trade with China than do frequent Wal-Mart/Target shoppers.)

So if America's poor and middle class have actually been earning more than originally thought (and more than they did only a few years ago), and if through free trade (and other things like technology) they can afford a lot more with those earnings, then should we really follow the President and his buddies into the tax-happy abyss based on an increasingly incorrect conventional wisdom about wage stagnation?

I think not.

(p.s. If the middle class has experienced a 30-40% increase in "total income" since 1979, and 1979 is when US manufacturing jobs peaked, then what does that say about another bit of conventional wisdom re: the alleged "superiority" of such jobs?  Hmmmm.)

UPDATE: Cato's Alan Reynolds has more on the issue here.

"One Of The Worst Of My Career," Sheriff Says Of Elderly Couple's Murder:

Who killed Donald "Don" and Helen Willingham

The elderly couple who was found murdered in their home in southwest Greene County yesterday (04-25-11) were stabbed to death, according to Sheriff Jim Arnott.

Ellen Willingham, who was 79 years-old, called 9-1-1 at 5:44 Monday morning and said an intruder was in her home at 2919 W. Swan and was assaulting her 79 year-old husband before she dropped the phone. 

In the call that lasted approximately 40 seconds, "There was a disturbance heard in the background before the line was disconnected, according to Arnott.  Authorities aren't releasing many more details about the call at this time.

First responders arrived at the home nine minutes after the 9-1-1 call and found the couple dead from multiple stab wounds to the chest.  Arnott would not comment on what room the couple were found, or if it was a knife from the home that was used to kill them.  He also would not say whether or not authorities had recovered the murder weapon.

Shortly after Helen Willingham's 9-1-1 call, emergency dispatcher's received another 9-1-1 call from a neighbor of the elderly couple who said they saw a clean shaven, thin white or Hispanic man with a dark complexion, wearing a hoodie running south from the elderly couple's home.  Arnott acknowledged that the description was vague, "but that's all we have to go on."

Investigators are hitting businesses with surveillance cameras around the area hoping to catch a lucky break.  They are also processing the crime scene, "slow and methodical," checking every door and window, according to Arnott.


Greene County Sheriff Jim Arnott

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Arnott says, "it was violent and random," even though there are no signs of forced entry into the Willingham's home.  "This is one of the worst cases of my career.  It's a rough deal, not only for the family but for everyone involved." Arnott said. 

“Why them? I don’t know, I don’t have an answer.”

The neighborhood has been targeted by vandals who hit unlocked vehicles and vehicles containing garage door openers, "This area is one of the ones that are prone to that," said Arnott.


Willingham's home is still surrounded by crime tape (Courtesy KOLR)

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The sheriff says someone knows something about the double homicide and is asking for help in solving the "brutal" crime.  "We know somebody knows what happened here," Arnott said.  "I need the public's help....I am very concerned about something like this.  We have lots of crimes where victims are targeted. I'm very concerned for everyone....on this case, I have no idea," he said.

Arnott believes the suspect, "may have defensive wounds on his body....there was a struggle."

Don Willingham was a part time pastor at Northside Baptist Church.  He and his wife, who were married in 1952,  had also been missionaries at one point in their lives, "This is a wonderful couple.  From visiting with family and neighbors, this is a couple who would do anything to help anyone.  His voice breaking, Arnott said, "They dedicated their life to the Lord."

If you have any information that could help investigators, please call the Greene County Sheriff's Office at 417-868-4040 - 9-1-1  or Crime Stoppers at 417-869-TIPS (8477). Callers may remain anonymous.

A reward is available for any tips leading to an arrest.

Minister, Wife Murdered In Home In Southwest Greene County:

An elderly Greene County couple were found murdered in their home this morning following a frantic 9-1-1 call from a woman at 2919 W. Swan saying an intruder was inside her home.

Sheriff Jim Arnott says Helen Willingham, 80, made that call at 5:44 a.m. and dropped the phone.  The call was not disconnected and investigators are reviewing the tape for clues.  Her husband Donald, 81, was the pastor at Northside Baptist Church and they were both former missionaries.

Initial reports to authorities was that it was a home invasion, however, they aren't ruling out that the couple may have known their killer.

Arnott says his office responds to property crimes in that area on a daily basis.

Investigators were seen searching a black PT Cruiser parked close to the couple's home.  That car has now been removed so investigators can process the car out of the rain.

Greene County Investigators Searched This Vehicle Near The Crime Scene (courtesy Springfield News Leader)

Detectives are interviewing one person in an effort to glean more information.

Arnott said neighbors saw a dark complected man in a hoodie running from the scene.

If you have information about this double homicide, you're asked to call the sheriff's office at (417) 868-4040 or 9-1-1.

The Unbearable Asininity and Immorality of Donald Trump's China "Policy"

I was really hoping to stay out of the whole "Donald Trump is Running for President" thing, because I truly believed (and pretty much still do) that (a) the spectacle was just a really good, and slightly depressing, publicity stunt for the reality TV star; and (b) anything I said would just give the guy another free commercial (albeit for an extremely limited market).  Thus, any discussion of this unserious "candidate's" completely unserious "trade policy" - which is literally nothing more than the immediate imposition of tariffs on all Chinese imports - was really just a waste of my and, by extension, your time.  

But then I saw the (admittedly early and utterly unpredictive) polls, and then I read that he's deathly serious about running for President, and then I went on the Laura Ingraham Show and found that smart conservatives like Laura (and a lot of her listeners) actually sympathized with Trump's "get tough on China" plan.

So here I am wasting a quiet Easter Weekend screaming into the interwebs about Donald Trump's - Donald Freaking Trump's - China trade policy.  I hate to say it, but this really does need to be done.  So let's just hold our collective noses and get this over with.

As noted above, Trump's entire trade policy boils down to slapping unilateral tariffs on all Chinese imports as soon as he gets into office.  Here's the man himself describing his big plan to NBC News:

"I would tell China, very nicely, fellows, you are my friend, I like you very much. I've made a lot of money on China by the way, a lot of money with China. I would say we are going to put a 25 percent tax on all your products coming in, and that's going to do a number of things," Trump said.

"Number one: as soon as they believe it's going to happen, they will behave so nicely, because it would destroy their economy,” said Trump in an interview with NBC’s Today show on Tuesday.

Playing up to voter fears on the loss of jobs to China, Trump said the transfer of cash to the Chinese was down to Beijing’s controversial currency peg.

"When you see what China is doing to us, what we're going to lose this year, $300 billion to China. And they are taking all of our jobs, and they are doing it through manipulation of their currency," Trump said.

Trump's China policy is wrong on just about every possible level: factually, legally, economically, strategically, morally and even politically.  Let's systematically address each of these now.

1. Trump gets his basic facts wrong. 

Before we get to Trump's tariff policy itself, it's important to understand the serial fallacy of Trump's basic factual assertions, i.e., that (a) China's currency remains extremely undervalued versus the US dollar; (b) China's currency policies are driving both the US-China trade balance and US unemployment; and (c) that the US trade deficit, and especially the United States' bilateral trade deficit with China, is a big problem for the US economy.

As I've noted here many times, China's currency policies are not nearly the vehicle of economic destruction that Trump and others claim them to be.  First, Trump erroneously focuses on the nominal US-China exchange rate (what the government says the currency is worth), rather than the real exchange rate (what the currency is actually worth).  It's the real rate that matters, as any "businessman" like Trump should know,  because it measures what tradeable goods and services actually cost.  And, as I've noted repeatedly here, the real dollar-yuan exchange rats has increased dramatically - almost 50% percent - since 2005.  Second, as the real value of China's currency has increased, American unemployment has gone from about 5% in 2005 to slightly under 9% today, and the US-China trade deficit has (except for the recession) steadily increased.  So there's no strong connection between China' currency and total American jobs or the trade balance (as the Congressional Research Service has repeatedly noted).

Next, Trump's assertion that $300 billion annual US-China trade deficit is a sign that America is "losing at trade" is the height of economic ignorance.  First, there's actually a strong correlation between US economic growth and an expanding US trade deficit.  As Cato's Dan Griswold recently wrote in a must-read paper on the subject:

An examination of the past 30 years of U.S. economic performance offers no evidence that a rising level of imports or growing trade deficits have negatively affected the U.S. economy. In fact, since 1980, the U.S. economy has grown more than three times faster during periods when the trade deficit was expanding as a share of GDP compared to periods when it was contracting. Stock market appreciation, manufacturing output, and job growth were all significantly more robust during periods of expanding imports and trade deficits.

And if fixating on the overall US trade balance weren't dumb enough, Trump goes one further and obsesses over an even more economically meaningless stat when he worries about the US-China trade balance.  As I've noted here repeatedly, the proliferation of global supply chains and multinational investment has rendered bilateral trade balances a totally unimportant trade policy metric.  Indeed, old school trade stats like these have become so obsolete that the WTO has launched a new global initiative to determine how better to account for actual trade flows.  The most common example of the indisputable obsolescence of the US-China trade deficit is the iPhone (and the iPod before that): each device imported into the US from China accounts for about $300 towards the bilateral trade deficit, yet the Chinese get only about six bucks worth of value from the item's assembly and shipment.  Meanwhile, the US-based Apple and its affiliates get hundreds of dollars from an iPhone's final US sale (for things like design, marketing, and even some manufacturing).

Even the idea that China is totally dominating the United States is absurd.  Yes, China has experienced impressive GDP growth, but (a) that's what developing countries do; and (b) America is still much, much wealthier, greener, and more productive.  Moreover, China's incessant quest for GDP growth through industrial planning has led to some pretty scary inflation (which is driving China's the increase in the Yuan's real value), some major league economic distortions (e.g., a frightening property bubble and an increasingly troublesome high-speed rail system), and a lot of other serious problems that, if not solved pretty quickly, could implode the entire Chinese economy.  Always the empiricist, Trump once "proved" how China was "eating our lunch" by noting how big and shiny China's cities are.  Well, on that, he's right, but that's because no one is actually living in them.  I mean, it's so easy to keep a city clean without the, you know, citizens.

There are several other factual problems with Trump's assertions, but let's just forget about these big flaws and examine Trump's actual policy - unilateral tariffs on Chinese imports to counteract Chinese currency "manipulation" (aka the "Trump Tariff").  As you'll see, it's just as wrong.

2.  The Trump Tariff has major legal problems. 

First and most obviously, the President can't just slap a tariff on Chinese goods.  The US Constitution (Article I, Section 8) gives Congress the sole authority to impose tariffs on foreign-made goods (i.e., "to regulate Commerce with foreign Nations"), so Trump would have to get congressional approval for his big China plan.   But considering that the most protectionist Congress in the last 20 years couldn't even pass legislation making currency undervaluation an illegal subsidy (and fretted for months over the WTO-consistency of the bill), does Trump really think that this new Congress - and its gaggle of free trade-supporting freshman - would agree to his plan?  Highly unlikely.

Second, there are several US laws that govern the imposition of remedial tariffs on Chinese (and other) imports, and these laws have strict procedural, evidentiary and substantive requirements that can't just be ignored.  Illegally subsidized imports from China (and other countries) are governed by the US countervailing duty law, while market-distorting surges in Chinese imports may be addressed under Section 421 (a China-specific safeguard).  President's Trump's remedial tariff would totally (and unlawfully) circumvent these laws.

Finally, the Trump Tariff would be inconsistent with two of the United States' most fundamental obligations under the WTO agreements: (i) Most Favored Nation (GATT Article I - the principle that a WTO Member must treat imports from all other Members equally) and (ii) the United States' tariff bindings (GATT Article II - the rule that a WTO Member cannot impose tariffs above the "bound rate" set forth in its tariff schedule).  Such a blatant violation of WTO rules would have serious consequences for the United States, as we'll discuss next.

3.  The Trump Tariff is economically ignorant.

Even assuming that Trump somehow convinced Congress to impose the Trump Tariff, its effects wouldn't be anything like Trump hoped or planned.  In fact, the tariff would end up causing a lot of pain (for both China and the US) for little or no economic gain.   First, as noted above, the Trump Tariff is blatantly WTO-inconsistent, so China would go straight to the WTO and easily win the right to impose retaliatory tariffs on US exports in the amount of the damage caused by the tariff.  Based on 2010 stats, the retaliation would be something like 25% (the proposed tariff level) of about $365 billion (total Chinese imports), or about $91 billion.  Considering that US exports to China totaled only about $100 billion in 2010, this WTO-legal retaliation would effectively close the United States' third largest export market - a devastating result for one of American exporters' fastest-growing markets (US exports to China have more than doubled since 2005).

Second, the economic pain wouldn't stop with US exporters because the Trump Tariff, just like any other consumption tax, would inevitably increase US prices of everything that American consumers currently buy from China.  Remember, US importers, not Chinese exporters, pay US tariffs and pass those on to American consumers.  This, of course, means that American families, many of whom are already struggling to get by, would end up paying more - a LOT more - for food, clothing, electronics, Smithsonian souvenirs, and everything else that now says "Made in China."  However, individuals wouldn't be the only ones screwed by the Trump Tariff - American businesses (and their many workers) would also be hit hard.  Because almost half of what we import from China is industrial supplies and materials or non-automotive capital goods - i.e., inputs used by American companies - lots and lots of these firms would inevitably pay more for the things that they need to remain globally competitive.  These higher costs, of course, also mean fewer employees, if not outright bankruptcy.  Awesome.

Third, it's highly unlikely that the Trump Tariff would lead to a significant increase in US manufacturing.  Sure, a few directly competitive US companies would benefit from that sweet, sweet import protection (by being able to milk US consumers for more money, natch), but the far more likely result is trade diversion - i.e., our imports would shift from China to other (more expensive) foreign countries like Vietnam, India or Mexico.  This is exactly what happened when the US imposed tariffs on Chinese tires under Section 421, and it's the very common result in anti-dumping and CVD cases.

Finally, even if the Trump Tariff succeeded in getting China to rapidly appreciate its currency (and, as noted below, it won't), it's far from certain that such appreciation would harm China's global competitiveness.  As Cato's Dan Ikenson stated last year: "RMB appreciation not only bolsters the buying power of Chinese consumers, but it makes Chinese-based producers and assemblers even more competitive because the relative prices of their imported inputs fall, reducing their costs of production. That reduction in cost can be passed on to foreign consumers in the form of lower export prices, which could mitigate entirely the intended effect of the currency adjustment, which is to reduce U.S. imports from China."  As an intermediate producer and big assembly hub, China is importing more these days than they did during the last period (2005-2008) of nominal currency appreciation, so Ikenson's insights likely hold truer today than they did even a few short years ago.

In sum, the Trump Tariff would cause massive pain for very, very little gain.

4.  The Trump Tariff is strategically unsound.

Even if the Trump Tariff weren't legally and economically dubious, it's still an awful strategic play.  The idea that the Chinese government would just roll over and concede "defeat" in the face of President Trump's big, macho tariff is absurd.  First, Trump fails to grasp that the Chinese government would never, ever do anything that makes it appear weak in the face of American aggression.  Instead, retaliation, not concession, is the far more likely reaction (just as China did when President Obama imposed those tire tariffs), and such sinophobic chest-thumping would likely retard, not quicken, the gradual appreciation of the yuan that China needs to undertake.  Second, China's not nearly as dependent on the US market as Trump seems to think.  The EU is now China's biggest export market, and Chinese exports to the US represent under 30% of China's exports to its top 10 export destinations.  So while the US market is big and important, China has other options.  Third, China couldn't rapidly and dramatically appreciate its currency even if it wanted to because any such move would implode the Chinese - and by extension, global - economy.

But, you know, other than that, it's a fine plan.

5.  The Trump Tariff is immoral.

Leaving aside the Trump Tariff's legal, economic and strategic problems, perhaps most offensive is its immorality.  As noted above, one of the most obvious effects of the Trump Tariff would be higher prices for American consumers. Trump even seems to recognize this obvious fact, and when asked about it he calmly explained:

But that's a risk Trump is willing to take. He says his son can live with fewer toys, as long as jobs come back to the United States.

"I have a son, and he loves little airplanes ... Most of them are made in China ... He has so many of 'em," Trump told CNBC's Larry Kudlow last month. "If he had half of 'em, and if they were made in this country, I'd be very happy ... and he'd be just as happy."

Other than the fact that those jobs wouldn't come "back to the United States," this kind of statement is mind-blowingly insulting, even for someone like Trump.  As I've repeatedly explained on this blog, tariffs are regressive taxes that harm poor Americans far more than wealthy ones like Donald Trump because they force the former to pay a bigger share of their (much smaller) paychecks for basic necessities like food, clothing and shelter.  Tariffs on Chinese products are even more problematic because lower income Americans buy a lot more Chinese stuff than rich Americans.  In short, when prices at Walmart go up, Donald Trump doesn't notice, but a working mom sure does.  And the only ones who benefit from those higher prices are a few well-connected American manufacturers and their workers.  Nice.

And this gets back to the brazenness of Trump's "toys" statement: sure, he can tolerate his son only having 10 higher-priced toys instead of 20 Chinese-made toys, but what about the dad who can currently afford only one toy for his son?  Last time I checked, he can't buy half a toy (or tire or shirt or TV or whatever), so for many lower income American families, the Trump Tariff doesn't mean ten fewer toys, it means no toys (or tires or shirts or TVs or whatever).

Stay classy, Donald.


6.  The Trump Tariff is the exact opposite of fiscally conservative, libertarian or "Republican."

A lot of people have dismantled Trump's born again conservativism by noting how he until very recently supported things like universal health care and eminent domain abuse, but his protectionism is just as bad or worse.  Indeed, it's the height of statist redistributionism.  Trump forgets that American consumers are buying Chinese goods voluntarily - last time I checked China wasn't loading missiles with TVs and launching them into the US (although that would be kinda awesome).  And he freely admits that the goal of his policy is to force American businesses and families to subsidize (by paying higher prices) that small minority of American manufacturers who directly compete with China.  So not only is Trump saying that he knows better than us about what we should be consuming, but Trump's also saying that because we just can't help ourselves but buy cheap Chinese goods ("ooh, they're so cheap and pastic-y"), he has no choice but to enlist the full force of the US government to stop us from harming ourselves.  President Trump will tell us to pay more for less in order to line the pockets of a select few because we're just too dumb and helpless, and we can't be trusted to make the decisions that he, and he alone, deems "right."

It's for our own good, you see.  Now please someone, anyone, explain to me how this is the policy of a fiscal conservative?

(Answer: it's not.)

Look, the truth is that China presents some real challenges for American businesses and the US government, and they should both continue to smartly and lawfully pressure China to reform its troublesome policies (while getting the United States' own messy house in order).  But it's absurd to think that the Great Red Menace is coming to steal our jobs and eat our lunches.  In reality, China's economy is at a very precarious point, and if the Chinese government doesn't find a way to change course, the country's headed for a Japan-style collapse, as this recent article made clear.  But, hey, maybe that fact explains why Trump, while (fake) contemplating the presidency back in 1990, said the exact same things about Japan that he's saying about China today.

Then again, maybe just like 1990, Trump's once again pulling a fast one on all of us and is just sopping up some free publicity in order to hawk his ties board game cologne TV show.  Unfortunately, even if Trump's candidacy is a joke (and I still think it probably is), his China "policy" has gained real traction among the American public and some influential conservative pundits.

And that's far more disturbing than Trump's current poll numbers.

Judge Declares Mistrial In Collings Case - When Will There Be Justice For Rowan Ford?:

Christopher l. "Chris" Collings (mug shot BCSO)

A mistrial was declared today for one of the men accused of raping and murdering 9 year-old Rowan Ford in November of 2007.

Barry County Prosecutor Johnnie Cox says Christopher Leroy Collings, 36, kidnapped the girl from her bedroom in Newton County and took her to his trailer in Barry County where he and Rowan's stepfather, David Spears, raped and killed the child.

Rowan Ford was just 9 years-old when she was murdered

The Phelps County Circuit Clerk's Office called 200 potential jurors for the case, by Saturday only about 66 jurors were left and defense attorney's filed a motion for a mistrial. 

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Judge Mary Sheffield granted the mistrial because attorneys had used multiple strikes in picking the jury and there were not enough potential jurors left to meet legal requirmements.  Some of the potential jurors said they had already formed opinions and/or knew too much about the case.  Others said they would not be able to keep an open mind about the decision between life and death for Collings.

Collings case was moved to Phelps County on a change of venue - now the case will be moved again, according to online court records.

Collings trial was scheduled to begin on April 7th, however defense attorney's filed last minute motions that delayed the start of jury selection to this week.



David Spears (mug shot BCSO)



Judge Sheffield will probably make a decision on whether to import a jury from another county or reassign the case to another county distrist on May 3rd.

Both Collings and Spears are facing the death penalty for the little girls murder.

Spears case is scheduled to begin in August in Pulaski County.

Investigators Release Porter's Home, 210 Pieces Of Evidence Collected; Couple Still Missing:

Becky and Rusty Porter

Authorities in Greene County say the have recovered over 210 items of potential evidence from the property where a couple from Willard vanished.

Family members say they last talked with Becky and Rusty Porter, who were at their home at 6703 State Highway HH Sunday evening.  The couples car was found with the keys in the ignition while doors to the couples home were left open. Inside the house were Becky's purse, cell phones, medication, shoes, and relaitives say the house reeked of bleach.

The Porter's have not been seen or heard from since about 8:15 p.m. on Sunday April 17th when Becky Porter talked to her daughter and told her she was sick and in bed.

Russell "Rusty" and Rebecca "Becky" Porter

Rebecca Hufft Ellsworth and her former husband, Dave, led Galena Assembly of God before her marriage to Rusty Porter last year.  Darrell Hufft says his "baby" (she has 10 siblings) sister has always helped other people.  "She doesn't deserve this....she always took care of people.  She called us all the time - this isn't like her."

Hufft says Rusty Porter had surgery for a brain tumor last fall.  "He was really feeble.  He had trouble picking stuff up with his right hand."

Security cameras outside the home were knocked down, according to Hufft.

Hufft says the couple had the cameras because they lived in the country and Russell's uncle, R.C. who lives next door, "Has been giving 'em some problems. Him and his son were mad because Rusty's mom gave them the farmhouse and five acres of land."

Crime Scene Tape Surrounded The Home For 3 Days (courtesy Springfield News Leader)

Hufft says thousands of fliers have been distributed and a motorcycle group has taken fliers with them to distribute in the south.  "When we got people to Kansas there were already posters of Becky and Rusty up in businesses.  It's been a nightmare...you can't sleep or eat - you just worry."

Sheriff Jim Arnott says over 750 man hours have been logged in the investigation so far.  Investigators have used blood hounds from the Ozarks Correctional Center and the Highway Patrol's helicopter to search the Porter's property and property adjacent to it.

One of the leads investigators are following came from someone who thought they saw the couple at a casino in Oklahoma, according to Hufft.

Janis McCall, who heads One Missing Link, an organization that assists law enforcement and families who have missing loved ones, has assisted in making and handing out missing person fliers detailing information on the Porters'.

McCall's daughter Stacy went missing in June of 1992 along with classmate Suzie Streeter and Suzie's mother, Sherrill Levitt.

Arnott says detectives have followed over 70 leads, and due to the amount of inquiries, their will be no additional comment at this time. "We are focusing manpower on processing leads and evidence."

Anyone with information on the Porter's disappearance is asked to call the Greene County Sheriff at 417-868-4040 - 9-1-1 or your local law enforcement agency.

UPDATE 04-23-11:

The uncle of Rusty Porter, who he allegedly had an ongoing feud with, consented to let investigators search his mobile home.  No word on what, if any, evidence was collected from R.C.'s home.

Family members of Becky and Rusty Porter will hold a vigil at Galloway Full Gospel Church on Farm Road 146 just off of West Bypass at 5 p.m. on Easter Sunday.

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COMPLETE NEWS RELEASE 04-22-11:

Press Release
In reference to Russell and Rebecca Porter;
missing persons investigation



Detectives with the Greene County Sheriff’s Office have processed the scene recovering over 210 items of potential evidence at the Porter’s residence, 6703 N. State Hwy HH in Willard. The Sheriff’s Office has utilized the assistance of the Missouri State Highway Patrol’s helicopter along with blood hounds from the Ozarks Correctional Center to conduct a search of the property and the adjoining area. The Sheriff’s Office has followed up on over 70 leads and input more than 750 man hours and is continuing to conduct interviews and follow up on any information received. The Sheriff’s Office is requesting the continued exposure of the photos of Russell and Rebecca Porter. The media has assisted by putting the photos out to the public which has helped us in generating leads.
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The residence/possible crime scene was secured for 3 days while detectives recovered potential evidence, however, that scene has now been released.
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Anyone with information is asked to call the Greene County Sheriff at 417-868-4040 or your local law enforcement agency. Due to the amount of inquiries, we will not be available for additional comment at this time. We are focusing manpower on processing leads and evidence. Sheriff Arnott will be contacting the media to give updates as this investigation progresses. Thank you for helping us disseminate our information.

Jasper County Woman Survives Throat Being Slit:

Josh Gail Johnson (mug shot JCSO)

A twenty eight year-old Jasper County man has been arrested on charges of first-degree domestic assault after allegedly slitting his girlfriends throat early this morning.

Jasper County Sheriff's Captain Derek Walrod says Josh G. Johnson sliced the throat of his twenty-one year old girlfriend in a friends car during an argument.

The woman was taken to McCune Hospital in Jasper where she received five stitches to close the wound and was released.  Walrod says investigators had to track the woman down to get a statement and she is in fear for her life.

Johnson is being held on a 24 hour hold pending the filing of formal charges of domestic assault and armed criminal action.

Audio: Talking Trade, Outsourcing and China on the Laura Ingraham Show

After lots of trial and error, I've finally managed to upload yesterday's informative - and frustrating! - segments on international trade from the Laura Ingraham Show.  (Who knew it was so tough to record streaming audio, convert it to a video file and upload it to your blog?  Yet another lesson in specialization and comparative advantage, I guess.)  There's a commercial break in there somewhere, but you can just fast forward through the dead air.

Many thanks to Laura for giving me (and the very smart Matthew Slaughter from CFR) the significant airtime.  It's nice not to try to explain multinational production decisions in a 15-second soundbite.  However, considering that I thought I was just going to be talking about outsourcing, I really want a re-match to talk about China trade with the misguided Ms. Ingraham.   Now, I'm not so sure that even my most-prepared day will ever convince Laura of the error of her ways, but I definitely, definitely want to give it another try.

~Not Remotely Crime Related~Westboro Baptist Church To Picket Charlie Daniels Branson Concert:

Charlie Daniels (courtesy CMT)

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Members of a Topeka, Kansas church that normally protests at military funerals will be protesting the Charlie Daniels Band concert at the Mansion Theatre in Branson on April 28th.

Daniels has not minced words when he has spoken about the church who hold signs saying "God Hates Fags"; "Thank God For Dead Soldiers"; 'You're Going to Hell,"  and "God Hates the USA/Thank God for 9/11"  where they protest.
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"When you travel as much as I do, you see some pretty strange sights and tend to catalogue such things as the antics of a bunch of local kooks out to grab some headlines.  Unfortunately these despicable sleaze balls are anything but local. They travel all around this nation leaving rage and pain in their wake, all the time claiming to be doing a service to God and assigning everybody but the ones in their motley group to hell."

In a recent interview with Country Weekly, Daniels said he was born a patriot and hopes to go out a patriot.  He is a major supporter of the military, and has been involved in several USO tours to entertain troops.

Shirley Phelps-Roper says about a dozen church members will be involved in the protest,  "Charlie Daniels knows were coming and whether he lays one eye on us on that day he's laid plenty of eyes on us.  This isn't about whether or not Charlie Daniels sees us, this is about all the human beings that he is leading to hell."



Shirley Phelps-Roper

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The church's picket schedule says members are slated to protest Daniels because, "Charlie Daniels has made himself an enemy of God by spitting in his face when he spoke out against WBC."

Albert Snyder, the father of a marine killed in combat, filed a lawsuit against the church and it's members for the emotional pain they caused when they protested at his son Matthew's funeral.  Last month the Supreme Court ruled in an 8 -1 decision that the church's protests are protected by the First Amendment of free speech. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in his opinion for the court, when the protest is conducted "in a peaceful manner, in full compliance with the guidance of local officials," their First Amendment rights are protected. 

Branson police chief Carroll McCullough says, "We received a letter from their [WBC] attorney advising us that they would be here. We've made all our patrol officers that are working that night aware of this. They certainly have the right to their opinions and their free speech."

Branson Resident Tim Haynes Is Staging Peaceful Protest Against WBC

Branson resident Tim Haynes has started a facebook page to rally a peaceful protest of his own, " I started the group on FB this morning after hearing about the WBC coming to Branson. I feel their message of hatred and division disguised as the word of God is disgusting. This group of morons does their protesting to rile up people, and I find it appalling.
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"We need to show these people that they are disgusting and vile human beings and they are not welcome in Branson.  This is a group full of attorneys and they are not stupid. We must be peaceful and show them that their hatred and disgusting nature is a disgrace to humanity, and to the God they claim to love."
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McCullough says, "We've also talked to the protesters protesting the protesters and don't expect any problems.  We're not here to take sides in this.....we will just make sure every one's rights are respected and protected."

Talking Trade and Outsourcing on the Laura Ingraham Show Tomorrow Morning

I'll be talking trade and outsourcing with Matt Slaughter tomorrow morning from 10:15a to 10:45a on the Laura Ingraham Show.  In particular, we'll be discussing with Ingraham - a fellow UVA Law grad, by the way - what this new WSJ article does and doesn't mean for the future of the US economy.  That article notes:

U.S. multinational corporations, the big brand-name companies that employ a fifth of all American workers, have been hiring abroad while cutting back at home, sharpening the debate over globalization's effect on the U.S. economy.

The companies cut their work forces in the U.S. by 2.9 million during the 2000s while increasing employment overseas by 2.4 million, new data from the U.S. Commerce Department show. That's a big switch from the 1990s, when they added jobs everywhere: 4.4 million in the U.S. and 2.7 million abroad.

So is this news some sort of disturbing harbinger of future American economic doom?  Or is it a perfectly natural phenomenon that's being exacerbated by some stupid American tax, trade, and regulatory policies?  I think that those of you who read this blog often already know what I'm going to say tomorrow, but you should still tune in to find out!

You can go here to find out where Ingraham's show is broadcasting in your neck of the woods.  I'll try to post a recording of the segment if I can get my hands on one.

Important Announcement: New Blog Intern

This blog has finally hit The Bigtime and hired an intern.  Her name is Ivey, and what she lacks in experience she makes up for in work ethic and entertainment value.  Here's an action shot of her guarding the door to my office:

And here's one of her tending to our Azaleas:

Now, if  only I can get her to stop pooping under my desk and eating my documents.

(p.s. Ivey might start posting here occasionally on non-trade issues like frolicking and chewing.  Stay tuned.)

Greene County Authorities Asking For Help In Locating Missing Couple:

Russell Wayne and Rebecca "Becky Porter (images GCSO)

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UPDATE 3:43 p.m.--A STATEWIDE ENDANGERED PERSON ALERT HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR RUSTY AND BECKY PORTER 
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Authorities in Greene County are investigating the disappearance of a couple from their home at 6703 N. State Highway HH in Willard.

Russell "Rusty" Wayne Porter, 34,  and his wife Rebecca "Becky" E. Porter, 46, were last seen Sunday night.  Detectives are waiting on a search warrant to gather evidence inside the couples home.

A family member told investigators that the doors to the couples home were unlocked and the keys to Becky Porter's car were in her vehicle.  Also left behind were Rusty Porter's shoes, Becky's purse, medications and the couple's cell phones.
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Rusty and Becky Porter's home is surrounded by crime scene tape as investigators search for clues (courtesy Springfield News Leader)

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The Porter's have not been seen or heard from since about 8:15 p.m. when Becky Porter talked to her daughter and told her she was sick and in bed.

Security cameras outside the home were knocked down and there was a strong smell of bleach inside the residence, according to Becky Porter's brother, Darrell Hufft.

Hufft says the couple had security cameras because they lived in the country and Russell's uncle, who lives next door, "Has been giving 'em some problems. Somebody obviously knew those security cameras were there because they're broke off."
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Rusty and Becky Porter

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A nephew of Russell Porter sought an order of protection against him last month.  On March 22nd a judge granted the order.  Online court records indicate that both men appeared in court on March 31st and a consent judgement was entered.  That order was served to Russell Porter on April 7th.

In March of 2010 Russell Porter pleaded guilty to domestic assault for an incident in September of 2008 and possession of a controlled substance and was placed on five years probation. 
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Russell Porter is 34 and a college student. He is 6' - 2' and weighs about 180 pounds, has blue eyes and facial hair.  Last known to be wearing blue nylon sweat pants and red or blue T-Shirt.
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Rebecca Porter works for Fantastic Caverns and is a new Grandmother.  She is 5' - 7" and weighs about140 pounds. She also has blue eyes and a tanned complexion.  Last known to be wearing pajamas or khaki pants and a yellow shirt with "Fantastic Caverns" .
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Anyone with information on this case is asked to call the Greene County Sheriff at 417-868-4040 or 9-1-1.

Arrest Made In Shooting Connected To Bondsman At Convenience Store On City's North Side:

Derek E. Crain (mug shot GCSO)

Authorities have charged a Springfield man with second-degree assault for allegedly shooting a man while a bonds person was attempting to arrest the man for bail jumping.

Springfield police public information officer Corporal Matt Brown says Derek E. Crain, 27, was booked into the county jail for shooting John William James Jr. at the Kum & Go on North National early Monday morning. 

Crain is also facing charges of armed criminal action, unlawful use of a weapon and engaging in fugitive recovery without a license.
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Kum & Go On N. National (courtesy KSPR)

Brown says that Jackie Rutter, the bonds person, and three other people had tracked James Jr., 29, to the convenience store and were attempting to take him into custody for bail jumping when he was shot.

According to Brown, "she attempted to tase him - but he broke free."  Crain told investigators "his gun just went off," in the scuffle, according to Brown.
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According to the probable cause statement filed late this afternoon, authorities were dispatched to 2953 N. National for a report about a man being stabbed or shot about 2:40 Monday (04-18-11) morning.

When officer Scott Hill arrived on the scene he found Lance Batman and Jackie Rutter holding James Jr., who was covered in blood, down in the middle of National Avenue not far from the store.

"Officer Hill says Rutter identified herself as a bail bond agent and advised James Jr. was jumping bail."   Both Rutter and Batman were placed in handcuffs and arrested.

EMT's attending to James Jr., found he had been shot in the left side of his chest.  The bullet exited near his shoulder, according to court documents.

Crain, and another woman, Clarissa Ferguson were located near a green mini-van on the store's parking lot.  They were both taken to headquarters for questioning.
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Crain told Corporal Kevin Shipley that "he had been assisting Rutter in attempting to apprehend John James Jr., and he was not a bail bond agent, but wanted to become one."
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"Crain stated that he had been with Rutter, Batman and Ferguson in the green van when they drove to the Kum & Go after learning James Jr. was possibly there."  At first Crain told Shipley that he wasn't armed and  had no knowledge of a gun being fired or used in the incident.
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He later changed his story and said Rutter had given him her handgun and he put it in the pocket of his shorts when he entered the store.  Crain says he, Rutter and Batman approached the bathroom in an attempt to take James Jr. into custody.
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Crain told Shipley that Batman attempted to open the unlocked door but James Jr., suddenly opened the door and bolted.  It was at that point that Rutter deployed the taser and Crain pulled the gun out of his pocket, "Crain stated that as they attempted to apprehend James Jr. he was knocked backward and the handgun fired,"  according to court records.
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James then ran from the store and was chased down National Avenue by Rutter, Batman and Crain.  Crain says that after James collapsed in the street he asked Rutter what he should do with the weapon.  Crain says Rutter told him "to give her the gun, or get rid of it."  Crain told Shipley he put the revolver in the van where it was later recovered.

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John William James Jr. (mug shot GCSO)

James, who underwent surgery for his injury yesterday (04-18-11), has a lengthy criminal record that includes convictions for trafficking in stolen identities, theft of credit cards or letters of credit, forgery and tampering with motor vehicles.

A probation violation hearing is scheduled for James on May 10th. He is currently facing a forgery, tampering and resisting arrest charges

Brown says he had no idea what James was booked into the Greene County jail for last Wednesday.  It was the company Rutter works for, Allison Bonding Company, that posted $75,000 bond on two cases for his release last week.